Rumours - confirmed & unconfirmed

Feb 24, 2011

Things are changing ... at least in Beijing ... and there is an amazing amount of misinformation out there ... so I`ve chatted with several people `in the know`about fact versus fiction.

Confirmed: "A" plates are now running 12 to 15K, up from 8K a few months ago, thanks to the vehicle plate lottery system forcing people to consider motorcycles as "necessary" transportation

Unconfirmed: Motorcycles might be thrown into the lottery system in a couple of months, according to two large dealers (but unknown by a third). This would be really stupid, as bikes are already restricted (no new plates without an existing plated bike being salvaged), but given how stupid the plate lottery system is, it may just happen. If so, what a disaster! The worst part is you cannot sell a used vehicle with the plate - the plate stays with the vendor, and the buyer must have won the lottery to plate the used vehicle. Used car dealers say biz is down 94% since Jan 1, 2011

Confirmed: Full 11-year "A" plate available on brand new CJ750s (price is 38K, including the plate). Only one dealer can do it, though.

Confirmed (for now): The temporary driving licenses for `L`visa holders will NEVER be available for motorcycles - only rental passenger cars & bike riders on properly organized bike tours in remote provinces.

Semi-confirmed: Beijing traffic police will be doubling their efforts to get illegally plated bikes off the road, in response to the numerous vocal complaints from car drivers who cannot get plates (due to the lottery system) and are getting fined, etc, for driving with out-of-province plates or no plates ... and they see unplated bikes, or bikes with other-province plates, zooming by. This was in a news article on BTV (almost every night there is a news article about the vehicle plate lottery), and the police were quoted as saying they would be more stringently enforcing motorcycle plate laws. A favorite place for the police to catch bikes is just outside my door, so I`ll see if the once-a-week-roadblocks are increased in the coming weeks.

Confirmed: The CCC and C-3 emissions rules are now having a big impact - several dealers are now saying `we`ll see in the coming weeks which bikes we can plate`. The so-called `grace period`appears to be over. Qingqi are having trouble, apparently ... but the new Regal Raptor 350 was approved and it is flying out the door (25K plus 15K for the plate, plus all the extra taxes, etc, puts it up to mid 40s)

Sigh

Wow, seems like sheer chaos. A lottery! What a perfect setup for corruption! Will it be possible to transfer (sell) plates that are distributed via lottery? If so, you'll almost instantly have a market for transfers. If not, there will be huge pressure for back-door deals with the vehicle registrars.

Why on earth don't they just impose an auction system like Shanghai (and Singapore and Hong Kong and perhaps others)? Whatever the market will bear. Our streets here are relatively uncongested because only a limited number of plates are issued. It makes for higher prices, but it seems more fair. If you really want a vehicle, you pay. I just hope that Shanghai has the nerve to stay the course. Beijing seems so broken as to be beyond repair.

cheers

I agree - an auction system works better for rationing a fixed allocation of plates - but Beijing believed that `poor people`should not suffer by having to pay the 45K for a plate that SH people do (and also, of course, because Beijing doesn`t want to be seen as following SH`s lead). So, if you win the lottery, you only pay the 400 rmb (or something similar) for the plate registration. Most of the `poor people`are out-of-luck with getting a plate for their brand new Audi A6.

In typical Chinese fashion, however, there are creative ways being developed to get around the new rules.

But you`ll probably be seeing more of Beijing`s used cars being sold in other provinces, as a Beijing used car is now almost worthless - the buyer cannot get a plate for it!

So, if bikes are thrown into this insane system, I will probably end up `leasing` my A plated bikes to some other foreigner, instead of selling them, when I want to replace them. But, then again, I can`t buy a new bike unless I`ve won the lottery.

The genius who thought up this system has been transferred to Xinjiang - seriously!

How does this affect the value of jing-b plates? Moreover, will there be any way to transfer the registration of the bike in the future if it has been registered under a company's name? Why does China think of the most illogical and obtuse ways to deal with simple congestion problems? TiC i guess....

Jing B plates are interesting - they don't really have an after-market value.

However, bikes with legal B plates are usually quite a bit more expensive than the illegal bikes, because the B-plated bike has gone through the proper channels (importation duties, if necessary, taxes, fees, licensing, inspection, insurance, etc). Therefore, a B-plated bike is more valuable than a non-plated bike.

A large number of B-plated bikes are registered in company names because the real owner does not have a residence in the appropriate area (i.e., outside the 4th ring road). But the bike is legal, and insured, and inspected (assuming one keeps everything up-to-date). It is very common to have a B-plated bike registered in a company name - bike shops / agents take care of this. Last time I saw it done on a new bike, it was an additional few hundred rmb, I think.

Selling a B-plated bike is actually just giving up possession - the "seller" turns over the keys, and the new "owner" just rides around on the bike. But the bike remains in the company name, so there is not a vehicle registration transfer. Possession essentially becomes 9/10ths of the law.

A-plated bikes are more complicated, and with the inherent market value, the registration / ownership is important.

As for your last question ... absolutely, TIC. :naughty:

This shite is making my head spin, and hurt.

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Originally Posted by euphonius

This shite is making my head spin, and hurt.

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It all makes perfect sense to the bureaucracy - TIC.

(We need a new emoticon that expresses the TIC sentiment)

It makes pefect sense to me as well. They are paying more than just 'lip service' to the communist ideal still, of the poor not being oppressed or disenfranchised by the rich. I admire that. No-one should be cynical about that.

Of course, it is not working but most so-called democracies gave up even the pretence many years ago, relying instead on self-delusion as a force amongst the masses. It will happen in China once the standard of living rises ( if it is not already), the very poor and homeless will be marginalised completely, and probably treated as health risks etc. and quietly disposed of. Not necessarily killed like the Nazis did, just ignored, jailed etc as the insane are on the streets of Australia, or brutalised and victimised as the homeless are. Forgotten. In the end they become a smaller statistic and can be dealt with as such. The police forces of all nations are ready and able to deal with the few that stand out, cause a nuisance, always have and always will.

It will be interesting to see how the Chinese overcome the Mumbai ghetto type problems of even more country dwellers moving into cities, the ghetto suburbs of Washington USA, and the unrest of the muddle eyast.

The world is changing, as always, there seems to be quite a swell of social movement at present and China is relatively stable but you never know what small factor will tip the scales. Might be secondhand car prices in Beijing, might be people not able to transport themselves and goods on MBs. That is what they are for most, necessary transport. Not toys for a few westerners.

And away from coffee table analysis, is the grandfather's axe solution viable? What does the license apply to once you have it, engine side plate and frame, one or both? Easy to get round for a good while, especially if it applies to just a number on a frame. I had bikes in the UK that were totally reincarnated many times, just an engine side-plate and frame that had many new lives in different set ups.

Thanks for the info.

I don't know if you guys heard, but my boss told me they may consider changing Shanghai plates system too, to do the same as Beijing.
Of course its only rumours, absolutely nothing more than this, but it got me wondering for a moment, because of course, spending RMB 45,000 on plates is no small deal. As you guys did before, I consider this as an investment, provided they don't change the system in 6 months...

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Originally Posted by jape

And away from coffee table analysis, is the grandfather's axe solution viable? What does the license apply to once you have it, engine side plate and frame, one or both? Easy to get round for a good while, especially if it applies to just a number on a frame. I had bikes in the UK that were totally reincarnated many times, just an engine side-plate and frame that had many new lives in different set ups.

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In China, the registration includes a color photo of the bike. Then, two years after initial new bike purchase, and annually thereafter, the bike must be inspected and tested. ANY modifications, including change of color, application of stickers, addition of racks, etc, will result in the bike NOT passing its inspection and not being able to be registered. Prior to the annual testing, therefore, the bike must be returned to its original condition.

And it is not just bikes:

I had an aftermarket roof rack on my Jeep 4WD ... fail ... roo-bar on the front ... fail ... Jeep stickers in the window ... fail, and so on. So, there is a large industry of returning your car/bike to original ... pass the test ... and then put the farkle back on. These helpful shops can be found next door to the testing stations.

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Originally Posted by jape

It will be interesting to see how the Chinese overcome the Mumbai ghetto type problems of even more country dwellers moving into cities, the ghetto suburbs of Washington USA, and the unrest of the muddle eyast.

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Jape, though I hate such terminology, I'm about as "liberal" as they come. I believe society (though not necessarily government) should do its utmost to provide a safety net that provides services and care for all, while protecting our freedoms to pursue the life and work of our choosing. I don't believe in Darwinian solutions to socioeconomic inequality. But ensuring health care and education and maybe even minimal nutrition to all, even/especially the the most unfortunate, is a far cry from enshrining a right for every citizen to own and operate a car without society's agreement that this is indeed a reasonable and rational thing to do.

Furthermore, I'm very leery of the idea that Beijing's licensing system is intended to prevent some kind of automotive disenfranchisement of the poor. More likely it's about automotive disenfranchisement of the middle class and rich, who in just a very few short years have become accustomed to measuring their social status by what kind of car they drive. These are the people who work in the ministries and who could be expected to revolt if suddenly a license plate cost the equivalent of several months' salary.

As for how China is dealing with rapid urbanization, well, that's an act in progress, and very hard to fully grasp. There are 300 or 400 million migrant workers sloshing around urban China, and it's largely they who build the flash skyscrapers and bullet trains, yet they have almost no legal status in the cities where they work. They cannot bring their families, or enroll their children in schools, or participate in the urban workers' health insurance schemes, etc. They live mainly at their worksites, crammed 6 or 8 to a room in modular housing, or if they've lost their job they indeed gravitate into what anywhere else would be called slums or ghettos.

And it's not only blue collar workers in this situation. Over the past decade, the number of university places and graduates has climbed five-fold or more, so that now there are more than 7 million fresh graduates pouring into the job market every year -- only to find that there are maybe only 1 million new jobs. They too are gathering in slums and ghettos. And when a slum gets slummy enough, causing the authorities to lose sleep over possible unrest, orders are issued and the slummy slum disappears overnight, and untold tens of thousands of disenfranchised workers and graduates scramble to find new dwellings -- like so many ants when their ant hill is kicked asunder.

Here are a couple of interesting and well-written newspaper stories from recent months, one covering the "ant tribe" and another on migrant labor.

Beijing now has a contingent of 20,000 new car regos every month, 17,400 thereof for private vehicles.
These are distributed through a lottery system. After 12 consecutive unlucky attempts, one has the right to get a plate.
To be able to join the lottery, locals must have a Beijing Hukou, foreigners a Beijing issued residence permit.


There were over 200,000 lottery players in January.

Apparently organized by some clever business men :naughty:, many elderly people (who have a Beijing Hukou) now start to join the monthly lottery. If one of these people wins a plate, she/he suddenly has a lot of money and buys a car. "Someone" then "rents" this car from these people. [sarcasm]As a next step it may become a requirement to have a driving license. So we will see a lot of old people in driving schools until the government will set a contingent or age limit for this also.[/sarcasm]

Many register cars in their home provinces or with friends from other provinces. Non Beijing plated cars are allowed only outside but not on the 5th ring road (those with a permit can go everywhere), and many just don't care as they say that they don't believe BJ traffic police is networked with other provinces.

I guess the folks issuing permits for non Beijing plated cars are getting wealthy :eek2:

Observations I made, seemingly as a result of this, not very well thought of, system:

- I never saw that many cars without plates ever before
- The CD industry must profit from this :lol8:
- I was asked three times in two months if I wanted to buy fake plates (at suburban gas stations, even though they saw I have plates)
- the number of outside plates is increasing


It is not sure if bike plates will be part of the lottery, maybe they'll start a own bike plate lottery. It should only be applied to B plates as these are forbidden inside the 4th ring already, with the red zone for these being extended to ring 5. I hear that BMW, HD, Benelli, Honda and Yamaha obviously teamed up to lobby for a "large bike class" with different plate type / color.

April 1st seems to be the deadline for motorbike related issues regarding new rules coming into force - EUR3, the lottery, ... We will see.

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Originally Posted by Lao Jia Hou

(We need a new emoticon that expresses the TIC sentiment)

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A Miniature of a China map :lol8:

When are they going to start a lottery to breath air in Beijing?

Buying real estate in Beijing is real interesting now too.

That place is out of control.

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Originally Posted by bigdamo

When are they going to start a lottery to breath air in Beijing?

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If there was air, .... :deal:

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Originally Posted by bigdamo

Buying real estate in Beijing is real interesting now too.

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Selling even more :rolleyes1:

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Originally Posted by bigdamo

That place is out of control.

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come on :icon10:

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Originally Posted by Lao Jia Hou

It all makes perfect sense to the bureaucracy - TIC.

(We need a new emoticon that expresses the TIC sentiment)

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^ditto... WE NEED THAT EMOTICON LIKE YESTERDAY, ok, yelling over... oh no, I meant to talking through the internet loudly... what, what, what was that? oh, the internet - what you mean one doesn't yell at the computer screen like a mobile phone... oh, com'n I was just trying to fit in like a yokal TIC! oh yeah right, no yelling... tic

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Originally Posted by Lao Jia Hou

In China, the registration includes a color photo of the bike. Then, two years after initial new bike purchase, and annually thereafter, the bike must be inspected and tested. ANY modifications, including change of color, application of stickers, addition of racks, etc, will result in the bike NOT passing its inspection and not being able to be registered. Prior to the annual testing, therefore, the bike must be returned to its original condition.

And it is not just bikes:

I had an aftermarket roof rack on my Jeep 4WD ... fail ... roo-bar on the front ... fail ... Jeep stickers in the window ... fail, and so on. So, there is a large industry of returning your car/bike to original ... pass the test ... and then put the farkle back on. These helpful shops can be found next door to the testing stations.

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Unless there was significant changes in rules, it was two times two years and then annually for the inspection. My bike was for the annual test three days ago, with panniers, top case, cameras , additional stickers, ... and it passed. The only remark they had - the horn is too loud. Yep that is what a Nautilus should be :lol8: :lol8:

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Originally Posted by chinabiker

Unless there was significant changes in rules, it was two times two years and then annually for the inspection. My bike was for the annual test three days ago, with panniers, top case, cameras , additional stickers, ... and it passed. The only remark they had - the horn is too loud. Yep that is what a Nautilus should be :lol8: :lol8:

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Ah, thanks for the correction - I've never owned any particular bike in Beijing for more than a year (in fact, my JH600 may be sold this coming week!). I was just going on what I've been told ... hence, rumours ... fact versus fiction.

Hmmmm - if I ever need a bike tested, I'm hiring you Andy ... with your handsome European stature, you just wait until a woman is running the testing equipment. :naughty:

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Originally Posted by Lao Jia Hou

...in fact, my JH600 may be sold this coming week!...

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Trading up (or is that down) to a Harley, I surmise?

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Originally Posted by euphonius

Trading up (or is that down) to a Harley, I surmise?

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Worse ... much worse ... a dual-sport BMW ... but, hey, a friend (with zero riding experience) bought a legal one & doesn't know how to ride it - his wife is going to divorce him - so it is possibly being offered to me at less than half his purchase price. Hence, my social responsibility for the harmonious society.

And my beautiful, wonderful, loving sweety who is so kind, reasonable & smart (and who sometimes reads this forum) has told me that 8 bikes is my limit, else I'll risk being in the same situation as my friend.

IMHO, the JH600 is a fantastic bike for China - the nay-sayers don't know what they're talking about. I've been very happy with it, aside with a couple of minor quirks. I'll probably get another next year (ooops, did I say that out loud? - just joking sweety).

A big concern of mine, however, is how I am going to face all the Germans I know in Beijing who've had me tease them about their over-priced, status-conscious BMWs! I'll have to keep my full-face helmet on 24/7. Or wear a burka.

The Harley Ultra will replace my no-name 100 cc farmer's pig-hauler ... hey sweety, a bike's a bike, right?

I believe that with due consideration your sweety should understand that your efforts toward a harmonious society are only to be commended. You will also be able to return to their arms more quickly and efficiently, freshly roused with motorcycling adrenaline and certainly more safely and salubriously than in your motorised wheelchair or the pig conveyance. Just remember the dental glue. I understand also that due to over-zealous production to fill the Valentine's day markets in Australia, (with floods and cyclones affecting local growers in Aus.), that there is a surfeit of (slightly wilted) long-stemmed red roses in China. This should help. If not, well there are many more sweethearts available in Beijing than there are fully-franked HD's. A sobering but necessary afterthought. One has to consider the comfort and available power of all the things one may put one's leg over, so to speak, a 'bike' is not just a 'bike'.... I do agree that 8 is an auspicious total to aspire to, and easier than 16 to maintain and service.

Mind you, 'ultra' is one hell of a description to live up to.