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  1. #1 general thoughts about future of chinabikes 
    grumpy old sod jape's Avatar
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    We are in the main enduro/dualsport and off-road enthusiasts here, yeah i know there are other interests. This is to my mind, in China, because they help on poor roads but also there has been world-wide fashion for the grunge image of such machines. Helped along with 'crusty demons' and the like certainly but for realistic reasons, lots of cheap models available worth the risk of experiment against the cost of big 4 machines. Now I do not pretend to care about actual statistics, this is perception. Trail riding has grown in Australia as a weekend hobby too. Yeah, lots of big BMW's and so on, but millions of dirt-bikes of all kinds worldwide, and quite a few more chinabikes on the road as well as off.

    But is this all changing? I see many more scooters too, and moped types in the cities as well as all the road/sports models. We see chinabikes struggling to leave the 125 and 200cc range, not too many 250cc about, some in USA, some in China.

    So what will happen next? I see the magazines full of 300/350/400 cc machines and reviews. We also have the EE3 thing meaning EFI with all the high tech problems for Chinese manufacturers. we have the major groupings of manufacturers seemingly controlled by the military with probably less consideration for market forces.

    Far too many dealers/importers selling all sorts of mixed up variants, mainly 125 and 200 still, those that haven't disappeared or are 'out of stock' since the WFC.

    Will China make the move to a market driven, well researched development and sales program, or having run out of models that meet latest ADR/EE3 and USA design rules classification, wil they just stop? They surely cannot take the Lifan/Loncin clones of jap. engines much farther especially with the demand for more power.

    The internal Chinese market must be affected by the cities all closing down on motorcycle usage and I don't believe the few thousands of chinabike buyers outside of China, except maybe elsewhere in Asia, will keep the myriad companies and variations going.

    Will we start to see a couple of good designs appear that conform to required emissions standards etc. or will it quietly all go away as they turn to or concentrate on cars?

    Are we the lucky ones with our cheap workhorses, reasonably practical once sorted, and our willingness to experiment and modify, or are we going to be marginalised enthusiasts?

    Hopefully someone will pick up the license for the Yamaha 450WF or similar, get some EFI tweaking sorted and we can progress, else I think we will be hunting for parts and repairs as these machines get to the ten of thousands of km and start to fall to bits.

    Oh yeah, and I was chatting to a motorcyclist, a stranger, the other day when we parked alongside one another. He was a journalist and mentioned that he had heard that the government here and elsewhere worldwide, alongside of carbon taxes, is going to phase out all cars and bikes that don't meet or cannot be modded to meet, the latest standards. I suppose it is a gesture toward lower carbon emissions and global warming too little too late - but it would cause me a few problems!
    Kinlon R/T KBR JL200GY-2
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  2. #2 Re: general thoughts about future of chinabikes 
    Moto Scholar moilami's Avatar
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    Well, teenagers are more open minded in Finland for chinabikes. Older people just don't buy them except very small minority who does not care what other people think. I don't see that changing in next 10 years.
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  3. #3 Re: general thoughts about future of chinabikes 
    Senior C-Moto Guru euphonius's Avatar
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    Price will matter more and more in coming years, but quality will ultimately trump price. What will probably be less and less sustainable is the endless tail-chasing by the big international brands to make "improvements" every year with which to allure new buyers. I'm thinking especially in the kilobike class. I don't have numbers, but I bet the KLR650 is still one of the top sellers in America, with barely any changes from when it was launched almost 30 years ago. OK, they did a redesign in 2007, but it's still basically the same carbureted bike.

    If the Chinese manufacturers can find a way to make quality bikes at a reasonable cost, and avoid the extremely costly urge to get into these endless development and marketing cycles, they might win longterm loyalty and a sustainable market. But they have to start paying at least some attention to the customer.

    And if EFI gives Chinabikes longer life, less maintenance hassle, better efficiency and power and cleaner emissions, I can live with that.
    jkp
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  4. #4 Re: general thoughts about future of chinabikes 
    Moto Scholar moilami's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by euphonius View Post
    Price will matter more and more in coming years, but quality will ultimately trump price. What will probably be less and less sustainable is the endless tail-chasing by the big international brands to make "improvements" every year with which to allure new buyers. I'm thinking especially in the kilobike class. I don't have numbers, but I bet the KLR650 is still one of the top sellers in America, with barely any changes from when it was launched almost 30 years ago. OK, they did a redesign in 2007, but it's still basically the same carbureted bike.

    If the Chinese manufacturers can find a way to make quality bikes at a reasonable cost, and avoid the extremely costly urge to get into these endless development and marketing cycles, they might win longterm loyalty and a sustainable market. But they have to start paying at least some attention to the customer.

    And if EFI gives Chinabikes longer life, less maintenance hassle, better efficiency and power and cleaner emissions, I can live with that.
    I think many don't buy a bike. They buy "Honda" or "Suzuki". Or Ducati. The power of brand thinking is big.

    There has been EFI bikes for long. However for some reason Chinese seem to be struggling with EFI and even Kawasaki struggled with EFI on KLX 250. I know about that story since I was about to buy KLX 250 EFI. EFI is fine if done right. But if not, huh, then it is helluva frustrating mess.
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  5. #5 Re: general thoughts about future of chinabikes 
    Senior C-Moto Guru culcune's Avatar
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    I just hope that we can get the Qingqi 200 motard/dirt bike here in the US for the unforseeable future via Qlink. I am welcoming the upcoming Qingqi 250 motard being offered by CCW. I hope that Pitster Pro continues with the 250 dirt bike and motard. Scooters, especially 50cc, are great commuters for busy urban areas. Some of the small 250cc cruisers/choppers/standards offered by the Chinese seem intriguing. I just hope the Chinese allow me to continue earning a steady living to be able to afford one of their bikes....
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  6. #6 Re: general thoughts about future of chinabikes 
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    Interesting topic... I'm by no means an expert, but I've done quite a bit of research on the China motorcycle industry over the past 4 years and I am pretty confident what exists today is not sustainable. I believe China exports around 6M bikes a year, which is an astonishing number but 95% are 150 cc and below. These low technology bikes will eventually be made in the under developed countries who buy them today which will help drive their economies forward. Couple this with the fact the 80+ companies still manufacturing bikes in China spend virtually no money on R&D because they know anything they develop will immediately be copied by the 80 other guys. They are definitely "milking the cash cow" because those who are investing are doing so in other products (i.e. cars).

    Despite all of this, I believe some where between 3 and 10 of these guys will survive and become the next generation of Honda's, Suzuki, etc. China has one tremendous advantage over the current MFG power basis of the US and Japan... a 1.1B supply of future domestic customers. Eventually motorcycles will come full circle and the Chinese cities will again open their doors to motorcycles because they will be scene as a way to relieve their massive congestion and parking issues instead of causing them.
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  7. #7 Re: general thoughts about future of chinabikes 
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    I agree with PMI-Asia, it's definitely an unsustainable model. Until motorcycles come full-circle domestically and the industry is encouraged to develop new technologies, everything will keep spiraling downwards. It is amazing the sheer amount of manufacturers there are churning out the same low-tech machines. Even the companies that do seem to 'innovate' come out with stuff like the Shineray XY350ST-2E. I mean seriously what is that? And what market study thought there would be a consumer base for that?

    It's all just a bunch of companies leeching. Sooner or later something has got to give!
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  8. #8 Re: general thoughts about future of chinabikes 
    grumpy old sod jape's Avatar
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    I think the incredible number of new cars sold in China in China last year was 18 million and that will rise yearly this decade to up to 40 million a year. Unless they do somethng incredibly stupid, their brands will dominate world markets by then. All I can see GMC and so on doing to survive is to partner with them. They also sold 40 luxury cars worth a total of $22 million at the Beijing Motor show. Motorcycles were for peasants and peasants want cars. Of course they do! Few of us, except maybe some youngsters, some inner city dwellers and expats, have ONLY a m/c.

    I stand by my original thoughts, maybe a few good ideas and models will come this year from the re-design shake-up, and yes a load of the older stuff will be dumped again in US, Aus., SA, South America etc. with or without dodgy papers. And then it will collapse. If the 3 to 10 companies PMI-A predicts last then we may get a few chinabikes but they will be already competitive in standard and similar in price with Jap and Austrian and other European brands. The existing brands will go into partnership deals and prices after an initial flurry of competition to see who is lkilled, will rise again. But so will standards and quality. We may get some cheap stuff from small makers in Phillipines or Thailand or perhaps India, that will be all.

    Enjoy them while you can. I still think the nasty bit is what that journalist told me, emissions standards will be gradually applied retrospectivelly.
    Kinlon R/T KBR JL200GY-2
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  9. #9 Re: general thoughts about future of chinabikes 
    Moto Scholar moilami's Avatar
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    Certainly some manufacturers should be able to make "big name" of themselves. We had in Europe quite some bike and 50cc scooter type manufacturers but what is left now? If no China company is able to push it to "big name" that would be then mega fail.

    (I by the way got first my motorcycle riding lisence. And car driving lisence years after that only because one employer wanted me to get it. Never have owned a car myself though.)
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  10. #10 Re: general thoughts about future of chinabikes 
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    Both the automotive and motorcycle OEM's are putting out impressive volumes to meet the demand, but the vast majority are low technology serving the local market. To become a real global player you need to have technology. The true domestic brands Zongshen, Lifan, Geely are all trying to improve technology but don't have the time to do it on their own so they are left with buying it. I am not sure you can truly understand something you buy as well as something you develop on your own, but the Chinese don't have 30 years to develop and improve like the Japanese did. When the new Deeming finds his way to China then maybe they will emerge as a technology leader.
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