Shanghai plates - price and advice

[euphonius]

Actually, I've already got a plate so take this with a large lump of salt. But to me 80k RMB seems about right for the privilege of piloting a couple tons of steel and glass around a crowded city, especially if the plate is a tradeable, transferable asset. Maybe too low. Compare Shanghai's streets with any other city in China, and you'll appreciate the huge positive impact of the current system.

When a vice mayor starts going "populist" and saying, without any empirical justification, that plate prices are too high, you know we are in trouble. Just look at Beijing, where a policy of getting everyone in a car held sway for more than a decade. They finally panicked in the past 18 months but it's too little, too late. Although plates are getting more and more expensive in Beijing, that's a city that long ago lost control and unless they start charging very heavy annual fees Beijing will never bring its mind-numbing, productivity-sapping traffic loads down to the levels we currently enjoy in Shanghai.

Administrative means to lower prices, or at least curb speculation and a price bubble? Yeah, well, that's what the government has been trying with the housing market. And what's the result? Prices just keep on soaring. Couples are even divorcing to game the system and own more than one flat.

Market controls probably allocate resources best, but not everyone is going to be happy with the results.

cheers

[ZMC888]

Hmm. Can't say I really agree Euphonius. Sure you have a horse in the Shanghai number plate race, so you see guys running without plates and any new system as a danger to your investment. How the hell can a new foreigner or Chinese person afford that crazy amount of money to lay down to get a registration plate? All that happens is that you encourage people to run illegally, as it becomes their only option. Like trying to cut the amount of smokers in country by making cigarettes $100 a pack, it doesn't work you just create a bunch of gangsters selling imported contraband. True, the Beijing system sucks, by the London/Singapore traffic management system has been proven to be a much fairer and effective model to follow.

[euphonius]

Dear ZMC,

I didn't defend the price of motorcycle plates in Shanghai. I said I like the high price of admission for cars. It works in Singapore and Hong Kong, which have very expensive registration for cars. Registering a motorcycle in Singapore is far cheaper, which could be seen as an incentive. Here in Shanghai we have the opposite situation -- bike plates now have become much more expensive even than car plates, due to government policy that has halted issuance of new bike plates, creating artificial scarcity. I do not like that one bit.

And it's a bit offensive to say I like the policy because I'm defending my investment. I didn't make the rules. I bought my plate when it was 42k, which seemed a fortune at the time, and I never expected it to appreciate. I don't gloat about its value, and always assume that future policy changes will decimate its value. There are alternatives to the expensive downtown plate. In recent days we've explored the idea of whether it's reasonable to ride in downtown Shanghai with the suburban C plate, which is still a lot cheaper, and the consensus is that it's probably a very low risk option for someone who cannot afford 110k for a downtown plate. I would not recommend riding illegally. I met a guy last night who was hit by a taxi on his unplated 150cc bike, and he had no alternative but to leave the scene despite his own injuries, saying, "I don't have a license or plate or insurance. As soon as the cops come I'm f*cked."

Guys are always PMing me to ask if it's OK to ride in Shanghai without license or plates. My answer is always the same: 1) In any accident, you'll be assigned 100% of the responsibiility, and punished as well; are you ready to accept that? and 2) In your own country, how would you respond if some foreigner asked if it was OK to ride without license or plates or insurance? Wouldn't you be offended?

To summarize, I think China was stupid to build so much of its economy around passenger cars and roads. This policy has been an abject failure, as can be seen in the congestion and pollution and carnage befouling any major city (except perhaps Shanghai). I hate the way policies favor cars over motorcycles and even bicycles, bicycling being my preferred mode of daily transport in Shanghai, even though the pricy plates keep the streets relatively fluid for my motorcycle. I use the motorcycle to get out of town for leisure, and not much else. I'm guessing that car ownership in China is still a relative rarity, maybe at 10 or 15 percent of the adult population or less, and I really really really hope it stays that way.

cheers!

[ZMC888]

And it's a bit offensive to say I like the policy because I'm defending my investment. I didn't make the rules. I bought my plate when it was 42k, which seemed a fortune at the time, and I never expected it to appreciate. I don't gloat about its value, and always assume that future policy changes will decimate its value.

We all know that the London 'zone' method is the best way so please stop 'talking up' how good the Shanghai system is, OK maybe comparatively in China.

There are alternatives to the expensive downtown plate. In recent days we've explored the idea of whether it's reasonable to ride in downtown Shanghai with the suburban C plate, which is still a lot cheaper, and the consensus is that it's probably a very low risk option for someone who cannot afford 110k for a downtown plate

. If I lived in Shanghai that would fit my 'be as legal as you can be' philosophy.

I would not recommend riding illegally. I met a guy last night who was hit by a taxi on his unplated 150cc bike, and he had no alternative but to leave the scene despite his own injuries, saying, "I don't have a license or plate or insurance. As soon as the cops come I'm f*cked."

I agree that is seriously stupid.

[Lao Jia Hou]

My view is allow the market to set the price. No one is being forced to buy a MC plate. There are substitutes available. And NO, I am not talking about illegal bikes, or fake plates, or similar. One can take public transit, ride a bicycle, hire a taxi, or whatever. I share TB's view that anyone who participates in the game of illegal bikes is a complete moron or, perhaps putting it more bluntly, simply a crook.

If the market price for a plate is 100 rmb, 1K, 50K, 100K, or 200K, that is the price. Pure & simple. There are two willing parties in the transaction. To some, it is expensive, to others, not so much. Life ain't fair. And the reference to real estate is valid - I think it would be wonderful to purchase properties at historic prices (assuming a rising tide), but it isn't going to happen. Same with shares in Apple. Same with the Aus $. Even the price of pork has risen far beyond the rate of inflation.

As for traffic control measures, that is a thorny issue which will always have 10 different views of what is "best." If one was "King for a day" and implemented one's own "best" view, you could be assured that there will be 9 highly critical opponents.

The price is the price. It is as simple as that. If you want the good or service and can afford it, you have the option of consuming it. If you can't afford it, then you need to consider alternatives.

Luxury pricing can also make alternatives more attractive, from a value perspective. There is very little functional difference between a Rolex and a Timex (although the latter does, indeed, keep better time), but people view the intrinsic value differently (e.g., ostentatiously telegraphing wealth by dangling gold & diamonds). If a 150K plate isn't worth it, and you'd prefer to use your money somewhere else, fine. If you absolutely MUST ride a motorcycle, fine, buy a plate. If you view a plate as an investment, fine, load your portfolio.

Let the market set the price. If it is indeed a bubble, it will pop. It always does. Always. If it doesn't, then it wasn't a bubble.

[euphonius]

Another word of caution about plates in Shanghai: The police are taking a particularly dim view of fake and cloned plates. How extreme? Yang Jie, proprietor of the Huageng Peugeot shop in Yuyao Lu, told me that one of his clients -- a Taiwanese guy who I've met -- was jailed for 15 days late in 2012 after being stopped on his scooter with fake plates at a routine traffic check. When I expressed skepticism, Yang showed me the traffic offenders' jail; it's the big Traffic Police building right across the street from his shop.

Yes, that's right: 15 days in a Shanghai jail for being discovered with fake plates. This is not apocryphal. The risk is real. I'm not saying this is right or wrong, or defending it. It's just real.

cheers

[ZMC888]

If the market price for a plate is 100 rmb, 1K, 50K, 100K, or 200K, that is the price. Pure & simple. There are two willing parties in the transaction. To some, it is expensive, to others, not so much. Life ain't fair. And the reference to real estate is valid - I think it would be wonderful to purchase properties at historic prices (assuming a rising tide), but it isn't going to happen. Same with shares in Apple. Same with the Aus $. Even the price of pork has risen far beyond the rate of inflation.

Just when did everyone agree car and bike registrations should be traded like corporate shares? Surely it's a job for the government to sell license plates and registrations? Yes, Life ain't fair. However the people with money abuse the system and make it less fair consistently screw the lessers out of the system. One child policy? How about a one car policy? How about a one house policy? If you allow Chinese millionaire Jay Lenos and Donald Trumps to stockpile cars, bikes and houses that forces the prices up and the people at the lower end can't buy in and become bitter and resentful. It spills over into anger and disharmony. In a supposedly communist country that is desperate to keep harmony it's laughable to import an American fat-cat institutionalized greed system.

[Lao Jia Hou]

Just when did everyone agree car and bike registrations should be traded like corporate shares? Surely it's a job for the government to sell license plates and registrations?

Well, the situation in SH and BJ is that bikes' A-plates are traded in the secondary market (no new issuances). It is common for such environments to see rising prices (supply & demand), as is found in the securities markets. Outside the securities markets, the secondary market operates with a wide range of "goods" such as taxi licenses, fishing boat licenses, emissions permits, stumpage permits, etc.

It is commonly government policy to restrict such goods, for a wide variety of reasons. In the case of MC plates in SH, it appears there has been a government decision to try and limit the number of motorcycles in the city.

... stockpile cars, bikes and houses that forces the prices up and the people at the lower end can't buy in and become bitter and resentful. It spills over into anger and disharmony. In a supposedly communist country that is desperate to keep harmony it's laughable to import an American fat-cat institutionalized greed system.

I think the government is trying to prevent fat-cat hording, at least in real estate, but it is extremely difficult to design public policy that actually works, unless there is a comprehensive, legitimate legal system in place, as the foundation. And even then, it is still difficult to implement effective public policy.

It seems to me that the SH A-plates are a solid asset (ceteris peribus), so I would guess that the underground banking system has funds available for those who want them. And there are substitutes available.

[ZMC888]

I think the government is trying to prevent fat-cat hording, at least in real estate, but it is extremely difficult to design public policy that actually works, unless there is a comprehensive, legitimate legal system in place, as the foundation. And even then, it is still difficult to implement effective public policy.

I think actually it's not that hard, the reason it isn't done is the same people who run the country are the ones doing the very same hoarding. When they've had their fill from the pie, you'll see the gates firmly shut, using the new decreased supply to keep the value of their assets at a higher level, that new 20% tax on selling apartments is the early sign of that. Surely that's why there's ghost cities? Everyone with money is buying ten apartments each? All they need to do with apartments is the same thing they already do with train tickets! One per ID card or foreign passport number.

[TB-Racing]

The CAR plate saga continues.....

Car plate prices break 90,000 yuan barrier


Shanghai Daily Newspaper 2013-3-24


NEW policies to cool down car plate prices in Shanghai look increasingly likely, after prices at yesterday's auction exceeded 90,000 yuan (US$14,490) for the first time.


In the ninth consecutive month of hitting a record high, the average successful bid for a Shanghai car plate soared to 91,898 yuan - up 8,327 yuan from February.


This is more than enough to buy three cheap Chinese cars.


The lowest price, on an upward track for five straight months, reached 90,800 yuan, 7,500 yuan more than last month's figure, Shanghai Commodity International Auction Co said.


The percentage of successful bids, however, rose from 36.5 percent to 38.2 percent, as the number of bidders dropped slightly while the supply of car plates remained unchanged at 9,000.


City car plate prices have been on a steep upward trajectory this year, soaring 32.5 percent in just three months - more than for the whole of last year.


Determined to check price rises, the Shanghai government vowed last week to introduce new polices to cool down the market if existing ones failed to make an impact at this month's auction.


On Tuesday, Vice Mayor Jiang Ping outlined measures set for rollout.


These include: reserving new car plates for new cars only; separate auctions for private and corporate bidders; and including second-hand car plate trading in the bidding system for new ones.


The first measure is aimed at tightening enforcement of a minimum holding period before car plate resale, making it harder for scalpers to cash in.


The second is intended to make bidding less intense for private bidders, as corporate competitors are often more willing to submit high bids.


And officials are keen to bring together new and second-hand plate trading as they say the existing second-hand market - which is also booming - provides a reference point influencing trends for new plates.


A week ago, second-hand car plates were already costing more than 90,000 yuan. But yesterday, a new policy took effect prohibiting second-hand car plates being sold for more than the latest average price for a new one.


Jiang stressed that the government doesn't want to "control" prices. Instead, it wants to cool down the market by using the market's own forces.


But the market itself does need to be better regulated, he said. Jiang promised increased management of used car dealers to tackle illegal practices.