One more word on this: I think of the plate and the bike as completely separate values. Hypothesizing on two worst-case eventualities (knock wood), if the bike is stolen I can get a replacement plate for nominal cost and put it on a new bike, or sell it; and if my bike is totaled, I can put the (mangled) plate on a new bike, or sell it. The value of the plate remains intact regardless of what happens to the bike. If I get sick of Shanghai and move to Zhongdian, I can sell the plate in Shanghai, then take my bike to Shangrila and get new plates there. In each scenario, the plate sells at the market rate -- currently in the north 40s.

Not trying to talk anyone into it or out of it. I'm just disputing the validity of the argument comparing 40K rmb or more to a couple hundred for a fake plate. It's apples and oranges, and there are actually compelling reasons to buy an apple if you can finance it. (Think Different! It Just Works!) No guarantees the policy won't change, but it's not the equivalent of pissing cash down the drain.

cheers