South China Group

[MJH]

I have not comprehensively calculated the rates of attrition in production within the Chinese motorcycle manufacturing industry. However at a glance that attrition seems significantly large and has been occurring year after year as a trend since 2008. However not all entities as large groups, independents and sub companies are loosing production, some are actually growing, however China South group is definitely shrinking overall. They look to be the big supplier of the rural supply “farmer bikes” which may be about to give way to 1.3 liter or smaller farmer four wheeled vehicles.


Complex but what remains in motorcycle production has to be well managed and in that include rights in international legitimacy to what they actually are selling. That’s is because they will not gain in exports if not legitimate and certainly not be able to sell any of the production to investors if they do not have any viable distribution channels into markets. It is going to keep getting smaller and smaller, but what remains has to be very well organized and efficiently selling into viable markets consistently. What is really needed is good accountancy and its only government that can regulate that first on themselves, then on the private sector. They can be legitimate and then displace any illegitimacy systemically. I can only image, that if done correctly, it would be embraced internationally.


In the bigger picture they will actually eventually and perhaps inadvertently force accountability into foreign markets, they will if they keep selling what they do not have legitimate rights to. The markets then have to address that and will be forced to by those in the markets that are affected by the acts.


Maybe something has changed but Harvard school of business teaches that short term is segments in sums that form a long term….the Chinese are not of that school all that you see may be an attempt to get to another distant horizon that is not immediately obvious to everyone.


Some of the production will shift out of china over the next decade, as the demographics change and the labor force develops. What remains will likely be more refined and likely in that be much more legitimate and probably not inexpensive.