Quote Originally Posted by Steve_R View Post
There's also the possibility that Shanghai won't follow Guangzhou's lead and they won't ban bikes like Guangzhou did. Beijing has a good system already in place for the bike plates, and new plates are definitely being registered there. Since Shanghai tends to be innovative and doesn't follow other cities, my overall guess is they would run a lottery system for bike plates like they do for the car plates. The prices would be high of course, maybe not as high as an actual car plate, but it would work as long as people were willing to pay the investment. Also, if there were a way to get newly registered plates, then the city could be more justified in the crackdown against unregistered bikes.

My own take on things is that I agree with the the long-running crackdown on unregistered scooters driven by morons around here, but I only fear it's the lead-up to a total ban in the near future unless things become clearer on the next steps that the city may want to do with the bikes.

As it stands now, I'm more inclined to wait until 2013 or 2014 and see what happens, and hope that the government would take a more positive attitude towards the current bike situation, to see if perhaps it would be more favorable towards bikes in the future.
Steve,

There's no need to wait till 2013 to find out what Shanghai is doing. The vehicle management bureau is fully involved in the transfer of these existing plates in circulation, and they have no end-of-use date. It's actually only the right to have a plate that is in limited supply and allowed to change hands, not the plates themselves. I purchased my plate rights from a seller, and went to the vehicle management bureau to register the transfer of the plate rights' ownership. I then spun the electronic dial by which the bureau's computer spits out available plate numbers, and I chose one to my liking. It is impossible that this was the same number as the one used by the person who sold the rights to me. I then took the printout and went to the plate issuance window, where my new plates were pulled from the shelves and handed over to me.

My motorcycle registration is for 11 years, which seems to be the official permitted life for a motorcycle in China. It says right on my registration book that my registration faces mandatory expiration on 11 June 2021, exactly 11 years from the date of registration. Why 11 not 10 or 12 or 20, I do not know. But there is no mystery about the duration of my registration. This does bring to mind a question: Does the plate registration expire on the same date, or is that only the last day that my BIKE can be registered? My assumption is the latter, but if it's the former, then the 40k-plus I paid has a half-life and will lose value as the years tick away. In Chinese, the expiration line reads: 强制报废期止, meaning roughly "mandatory scrapping deadline". Surely that applies to the bike, not the registration!

Incidentally, this same question applies to buyers of real estate in China. My apartment has a 70- or 90-year expiration on the land-use rights, and I don't think anyone knows as of now whether this will be rolled over for the future owners, or taken back by the state. I'll be long gone by then, and perhaps the current state will be gone too, so I don't much care. But 11 years I do care about!

You might go back and re-read my post on Getting Legal in Shanghai, since it covers a lot of this stuff in detail.

Bottom line: Shanghai and Beijing seem to be moving toward accommodating motorcycles among the permitted categories of vehicles, as they have welcomed major retail operations by Harley-Davidson (directly owned), BMW Motorrad (via local agents) and Ducati (also via local agents) and have moved to establish clear procedures for registration, licensing and expiration of user rights. It's hard to imagine them simply banning bikes altogether, and it's perhaps even conceivable that, under World Trade Organization fair play rules, cities with bans will be obliged to fall into compliance.

One dissent: I don't agree with your assessment that Beijing has put a "good system" in place; by maintaining lower prices but subjecting the public to a limited auction, they have created a Frankenstein of a system that is fair to no one and already is breeding new forms of corruption (i.e., retirees paid to apply for plates, then handing them over to illegal syndicates for black market transfers). Shanghai's system does penalize the poor, but simply lets the market set the price and hence is technically fairer and not as susceptible to yellow cows, scalpers and other bottom feeders. If the city really is taking enforcement seriously, even the fake plates can be easily curbed.

Again, full disclosure: I'm paid into the current plating system and hence have an interest in its continuation and success.

We really should be discussing this over beers, or coffee during a nice ride in this lovely spring weather!

cheers!